I'm struggling to see beyond Loreen for tomorrow's final. The response to the Swedish entry on social networking sites last night was massive, and she has shot up the charts overnight in Ireland, Holland, Austria and Greece. She also achieved European chart success she when the single was released a few months ago, and betting sites have her at about 2/1 to win.

I personally think the song is decent, her performance last night wasn't as good as at Melodifestivalen though.

What do you reckon?

I voted no, and it's not because I don't think Loreen has the capabilities of winning, I do like her and her song a lot. I voted no because I think there are lots of contenders and saying that she's a dead cert is going to jinx her.

1. Why is this a closed vote.?
2. Loreen wasnt convincing me yesterday. I am even not sure if she came in top 3 of the semi.

No, and I'm not saying it because I'm not a fan of the song. Here is what I think:

1. Televoting: The song and even more, the staging, isn't something that can appeal to a huge audience (like Fairytale). I can't see kids, teens, granmas going WOW I must vote for this. The darkness, the strange dancing (?) moves and a dance track can appeal to many but, as far as televoting goes, I can see Russia appealing to more people. Now, after popularity (which is always no1 in a song, no matter the country), we examine allies (as always in eurovision). Rybak and Lena managed to overcome that obstacle but the first one had a song that was no1 even before it was chosen by Norway, and Lena, well, let's admit that 2010 wasn't a strong year anyway. Countries with many allies didn't have particularly strong entries (with the exception of Turkey who came 2nd and Romania 3rd) and Lena had a great draw: 22nd out 25. This year, Russia and Serbia are really strong: one with the grannies and the other one with their most famous artist...plus Serbia has the good draw, too, and both the grannies and Zeljko can and do appeal to many people outside their respective allies. So, it won't be that easy to win televoting.

2. Juries: Of course, you never know how juries will vote but this year is (again) much stronger than 2010 or 2011..and I mean that jury-wise. There are a few excellent ballads both in voice and composition and then there's Italy who, although once again I'm not a fan, I can see why a jury would vote for it, both for the composition and the performance. Actually, when I saw Nina's second rehearsal, I wondered if I have been unfair to her and the song as it comes across real good on the screen. In conclusion, sure, Sweden may do well with the juries but it won't be that easy (again, same as with televoting)

3. Draw: Sweden does have a good draw but let's not forget that after Loreen, come Spain, Germany, Ireland and Serbia and I'm only referring to those because for different reason each, they are songs that can do well both with televoting and with juries (and pls don't tell me the juries won't vote for Jedward..the pop members of juries will vote for Waterline). So, once again it's not Lena in 2010 or even Rybak in 2009..and who can be sure that if Eric had a better draw last year, Sweden wouldn't have won the televoting over Azerbaijan?

So, for all these reasons, I don't think that Sweden is a definite winner. One of the most likely ones, yes, but that's all.

Loreen is not playing it quite fair. First of all the voice comes threwe autotune, so its no exactly live singing. And all the pr-marketing, and makeing it a big hit before even the concert starts is unapealing! What contest that is anymore? Song is not bad, but have I heard it just 2 or 3 times before the finals I wouldnt notice it. Now I know the melody and lyrics by fare, even it is not my favorite. This thing is made with big money. Has sweden paid ESC: what was the thing with ABBA together with last vinners? Oh my Gog. They realy realy realy have to win!

By the way, I'm not trying to big her or Sweden's chances up, I was just suggesting she looks quite likely to win the final.

Russia are the other betting favourites, albeit not as much as Sweden, but with them having such a novelty act, it really has to 'click' on the night.

There was definitely added voice effects in the Melodifestivalen, but there wasn't any last night.

I voted 'No' for several reasons.

1: Stage performance: I agree the stage performance looked special for us, fans who didn't see her for the first time. After the semi, a lot of friends spoke to me on Facebook asking: wtf was that Swedish witch?
She just looks really weird and basically, that performance is distracting and doesn't let anyone connect to the song itself.

2. Loreen's singing: Ok, she wasn't off key in most of the song (she did have some awkward notes though), but her pronunciation was really bad. She must've been on something before the performance, as the first verse wasn't understandable at all.

3. Fans and Sweden: A point from a discussion I've followed in the past few days: would Euphoria be as hyped as it is now if a shit ESC country, let's say Bulgaria or Holland, had sent it? Is it also the fact that it's Sweden who sent it which makes it a favourite? My answer to that: yes. Since 1999, Sweden has been hyped in pretty much every year except maybe 2005. I simply don't think Loreen would get the odds she has now if she was the Bulgarian entry. The regular viewers have showed us that they often don't like Sweden as much as 'we' do (best examples are 2008, 2009 and 2010) and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't like Loreen as much as 'we' do.

4: Song: The song is an ordinary dance track with no real excitement in it except the performance. It doesn't have the big unique elements Molitva or Fairytale had (in my eyes also Satellite was unique, but if it had been someone else singing it, then it wouldn't have been. Lena made it unique).

For these 4 reasons, I wouldn't say Loreen is a runaway, definite winner. The song doesn't scream winner. She definitely has a chance of doing it, but a 2nd Rybak? No, can't see that happening.

Really? I can't tell much difference between her voice in both performances.

And I think "ordinary" people watching ESC, who just watch it because it's on - and then vote - not those who are bothered enough even to watch the semi finals, will think she is weird and will dismiss it. They far outnumber the diehard Eurovision fans.

For what it's worth, I hope neither Loreen nor the Russian grannies win; they're both embarrassing performances (but I'd rather her than the old dears, to be honest).

There are no certainties in life apart from death, taxes and a top-half finish for Russia.

No entry is, anything could happen.

I guess Alexey last year didn't get that memo about top half finish for Russia

Well, looks like everyone was wrong!

Well, we all said Sweden was a likely winner...just that it wasn't certain. The fact that it actually won, doesn't mean we were wrong

I mean wrong in the instance that the performance didn't put people off, it wasn't just fan hype and the song was widely liked by normal people, and it did run away.

The exception which proves the rule ofc.

Let's wait and see if it 'ran away' from normal people's votes or from the juries

I'd say

Based on the result, it seems there was a good chance it did both, but I'd like to see where it was more prominent too

My feeling is that Russia won televoting and did awfully with juries and that Sweden was 2nd in televoting, not far behind Russia. We'll see.

After the first jury results, I think you might be right. But you never know of course, I saw the Portuguese jury voted Georgia, so everything is possible.

Sweden was still a long way ahead of Russia at the final gong though...